[SMM Analysis] when can bismuth prices continue to slide for nearly half a year to stop falling and recover?

SMM: since the end of March this year, bismuth prices have been in the downward channel, does not seem to improve. Since March 26, refined bismuth has fallen by 9750 yuan per tonne, or 13.68 per cent.

Under the influence of the normalization of environmental inspection, the processing capacity of all kinds of small metal manufacturers is limited. however, according to SMM research, with the temporary end of large-scale environmental inspection work, individual licensed manufacturers have the willingness to resume production. But the current market is not as good as it was in the same period last year. Some lead, zinc and copper companies also had a willingness to ship at the end of June, but there were few market takers and trading was not active.

The transaction volume of menu order is cold and clear to the enterprise.

As bismuth prices continue to decline, the market is generally not optimistic about the bismuth market. According to SMM research, lead-bismuth alloy supply is not large, and the content of low-content manufacturers are not willing to purchase. Production enterprises are often only to ensure rigid demand for raw materials, look at the order, the volume of transactions is limited. At the same time, bismuth concentrate is rare on the market, which also affects the production of crude bismuth because importers do not release in large quantities.

Bismuth prices continue to decline or tend to replenish at low levels

The limited terminal consumption capacity of bismuth market, coupled with the excessive decline in foreign media quotations, led to widespread risk aversion in the market, so at present, bismuth market terminal is mainly to digest inventory, failed to appear additional purchasing power to boost the entire market. According to the latest news from the SMM survey, the increase in inquiries in the bismuth market this week, the increased attention of traders and speculators, there are signs of waiting to start, but have not yet actually started. Trade inquiries have increased. as bismuth prices have fallen all the way this year, traders' inventory costs have been high, and there has been a tendency to replenish goods at a promising low level recently.

The article "Bismuth Market Cold clear: SMM Bismuth spot Weekly report (2018.06.19 ≤ 2018.06.22)" released on the 22nd of SMM6 predicts that next week is the last trading day of the year, and both upstream and downstream are more cautious. If the demand for bismuth in the market does not rise enough, bismuth prices may still be difficult to stop falling, bismuth prices can recover, depends on whether overseas procurement can finally attack to boost the market as a whole.